gj-risk-sentiment

carry_flow_analyst

deepseek/deepseek-chat-v3.1

02b61c4810415304…

First seen 6/13/2026. Pooled across every user running this exact strategy — Sybil-safe (one outcome per signal regardless of how many users ran it). Mechanical-exit P&L below assumes TP/SL exit with 0.05% fees per side; it is decision-support metadata, not a P&L promise.

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Sample

152 resolved calls

Hit rate

52.6%

Edge vs 50%

+2.6%

z-score

0.65

Not statistically distinguishable from coin flip yet

Resolved

152

Hit rate

52.6%

Edge vs coin flip

0.0%

95% conservative

Reliability

73.3%

1 − Brier

Mechanical return

-10.0%

105 trades · TP/SL exit · 0.05% fees

Sharpe / trade

-0.52

not annualised

Max drawdown

10.9%

peak-to-trough

Per-market track record

Market	Polarity	Resolved	Hit rate	Edge	Mech. return	Sharpe	Max DD
GBPJPY	Random	152	52.6%	0.0%	-10.0%	-0.52	10.9%

Are the confidence scores honest?

When this persona says “70%”, how often is it actually right? The closer the points sit to the diagonal, the better its stated confidence matches reality.

Left to right: the confidence number. Up: how often it was actually right. Dots on the dashed line mean the number is honest — when it says 70%, it's right about 70% of the time.

Calibration score (Brier) 0.267 vs 0.249 baseline — lower is better.

Per-market track record

Are the confidence scores honest?

Last 30 outcomes