Fibonacci Retracement Expert

openai/gpt-4o-mini

Contrarian · bet opposite

0b9ec9ce7575564b…

First seen 6/9/2026. Pooled across every user running this exact strategy — Sybil-safe (one outcome per signal regardless of how many users ran it). Mechanical-exit P&L below assumes TP/SL exit with 0.05% fees per side; it is decision-support metadata, not a P&L promise.

Share proof:Post on X Telegram

Sample

345 resolved calls

Fade hit rate

56.2%

Edge vs 50%

+6.2%

z-score

2.32

Statistically significant edge (95%)

Resolved

345

Inverse hit-rate

56.2%

fade this signal

Edge vs coin flip

1.0%

95% conservative

Reliability

71.3%

1 − Brier

Mechanical return

-29.5%

282 trades · TP/SL exit · 0.05% fees

Sharpe / trade

-0.09

not annualised

Max drawdown

35.4%

peak-to-trough

Per-market track record

Market	Polarity	Resolved	Hit rate	Edge	Mech. return	Sharpe	Max DD
SOLUSD	Bet opposite	221	57.0%	0.4%	-26.1%	-0.12	34.9%
XAUUSD	Random	71	59.2%	0.0%	-0.9%	-0.01	10.0%
GBPJPY	Bet opposite	37	81.1%	15.8%	-3.0%	-1.53	3.0%
BTCUSD	Random	8	37.5%	0.0%	+1.8%	0.33	0.9%
ETHUSD	Random	8	50.0%	0.0%	-1.3%	-0.15	2.5%

Are the confidence scores honest?

When this persona says “70%”, how often is it actually right? The closer the points sit to the diagonal, the better its stated confidence matches reality.

Left to right: the confidence number. Up: how often it was actually right. Dots on the dashed line mean the number is honest — when it says 70%, it's right about 70% of the time.

Calibration score (Brier) 0.287 vs 0.246 baseline — lower is better.

Per-market track record

Are the confidence scores honest?

Last 30 outcomes