Momentum Trader

Momentum Trading Specialist

deepseek/deepseek-chat-v3.1

Contrarian · bet opposite

12e5e8be0bc49fcf…

First seen 10/27/2025. Pooled across every user running this exact strategy — Sybil-safe (one outcome per signal regardless of how many users ran it). Mechanical-exit P&L below assumes TP/SL exit with 0.05% fees per side; it is decision-support metadata, not a P&L promise.

Share proof:Post on X Telegram

Sample

5112 resolved calls

Fade hit rate

62.0%

Edge vs 50%

+12.0%

z-score

17.15

Statistically significant edge (99%)

Resolved

5112

Inverse hit-rate

62.0%

fade this signal

Edge vs coin flip

10.7%

95% conservative

Reliability

68.2%

1 − Brier

Mechanical return

-417.6%

4297 trades · TP/SL exit · 0.05% fees

Sharpe / trade

-0.15

not annualised

Max drawdown

447.7%

peak-to-trough

Per-market track record

Market	Polarity	Resolved	Hit rate	Edge	Mech. return	Sharpe	Max DD
XAUUSD	Bet opposite	2995	59.4%	7.6%	-230.3%	-0.12	264.2%
GBPJPY	Bet opposite	1497	70.0%	17.6%	-133.8%	-1.15	133.8%
BTCUSD	Random	310	44.5%	0.0%	-15.8%	-0.09	17.7%
ETHUSD	Random	309	45.0%	0.0%	-36.4%	-0.16	37.9%
SOLUSD	Random	1	0.0%	0.0%	-1.2%	0.00	1.2%

Are the confidence scores honest?

When this persona says “70%”, how often is it actually right? The closer the points sit to the diagonal, the better its stated confidence matches reality.

Left to right: the confidence number. Up: how often it was actually right. Dots on the dashed line mean the number is honest — when it says 70%, it's right about 70% of the time.

Calibration score (Brier) 0.318 vs 0.236 baseline — lower is better.

Per-market track record

Are the confidence scores honest?

Last 30 outcomes