Fibonacci Retracement Expert

openai/gpt-4o-mini

131bf3c8162b5c8a…

First seen 6/8/2026. Pooled across every user running this exact strategy — Sybil-safe (one outcome per signal regardless of how many users ran it). Mechanical-exit P&L below assumes TP/SL exit with 0.05% fees per side; it is decision-support metadata, not a P&L promise.

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Sample

329 resolved calls

Hit rate

47.7%

Edge vs 50%

-2.3%

z-score

-0.83

Not statistically distinguishable from coin flip yet

Resolved

329

Hit rate

47.7%

Edge vs coin flip

0.0%

95% conservative

Reliability

70.1%

1 − Brier

Mechanical return

+11.3%

275 trades · TP/SL exit · 0.05% fees

Sharpe / trade

0.04

not annualised

Max drawdown

24.5%

peak-to-trough

Per-market track record

Market	Polarity	Resolved	Hit rate	Edge	Mech. return	Sharpe	Max DD
GBPJPY	Random	60	40.0%	0.0%	-5.0%	-0.92	5.0%
XAUUSD	Random	59	47.5%	0.0%	-3.0%	-0.20	5.5%
SOLUSD	Random	55	61.8%	0.0%	+18.2%	0.22	7.3%
BTCUSD	Random	54	50.0%	0.0%	-3.5%	-0.07	11.9%
ETHUSD	Random	54	61.1%	0.0%	+6.6%	0.11	8.8%
EURUSD	Bet opposite	47	76.6%	12.8%	-1.9%	-0.21	3.3%

Are the confidence scores honest?

When this persona says “70%”, how often is it actually right? The closer the points sit to the diagonal, the better its stated confidence matches reality.

Left to right: the confidence number. Up: how often it was actually right. Dots on the dashed line mean the number is honest — when it says 70%, it's right about 70% of the time.

Calibration score (Brier) 0.299 vs 0.249 baseline — lower is better.

Per-market track record

Are the confidence scores honest?

Last 30 outcomes