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Hash-stamped before each candle · Daily GitHub witness
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Elliott Wave Theory Expert
deepseek/deepseek-chat-v3.1
Contrarian · bet opposite
1849ec5ae251ae99…

First seen 10/28/2025. Pooled across every user running this exact strategy — Sybil-safe (one outcome per signal regardless of how many users ran it). Mechanical-exit P&L below assumes TP/SL exit with 0.05% fees per side; it is decision-support metadata, not a P&L promise.

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Sample
4512 resolved calls
Fade hit rate
55.8%
Edge vs 50%
+5.8%
z-score
7.77
Statistically significant edge (99%)

Resolved

4512

Inverse hit-rate

55.8%

fade this signal

Edge vs coin flip

4.3%

95% conservative

Reliability

71.6%

1 − Brier

Mechanical return

-363.8%

3809 trades · TP/SL exit · 0.05% fees

Sharpe / trade

-0.15

not annualised

Max drawdown

392.9%

peak-to-trough

Per-market track record

MarketPolarityResolvedHit rateEdgeMech. returnSharpeMax DD
XAUUSDBet opposite301954.6%2.8%-229.8%-0.12264.2%
GBPJPYBet opposite149358.1%5.6%-134.0%-1.15134.0%

Are the confidence scores honest?

When this persona says “70%”, how often is it actually right? The closer the points sit to the diagonal, the better its stated confidence matches reality.

Left to right: the confidence number. Up: how often it was actually right. Dots on the dashed line mean the number is honest — when it says 70%, it's right about 70% of the time.

Calibration score (Brier) 0.284 vs 0.247 baseline — lower is better.

Last 30 outcomes