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Hash-stamped before each candle · Daily GitHub witness
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Elliott Wave Theory Expert
deepseek/deepseek-chat-v3.1
Contrarian · bet opposite
1849ec5ae251ae99…

First seen 10/28/2025. Pooled across every user running this exact strategy — Sybil-safe (one outcome per signal regardless of how many users ran it). Mechanical-exit P&L below assumes TP/SL exit with 0.05% fees per side; it is decision-support metadata, not a P&L promise.

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Sample
3180 resolved calls
Fade hit rate
56.2%
Edge vs 50%
+6.2%
z-score
7.02
Statistically significant edge (99%)

Resolved

3180

Inverse hit-rate

56.2%

fade this signal

Edge vs coin flip

4.5%

95% conservative

Reliability

71.5%

1 − Brier

Mechanical return

-238.5%

2691 trades · TP/SL exit · 0.05% fees

Sharpe / trade

-0.12

not annualised

Max drawdown

268.1%

peak-to-trough

Per-market track record

MarketPolarityResolvedHit rateEdgeMech. returnSharpeMax DD
XAUUSDBet opposite211654.6%2.5%-144.5%-0.09179.4%
GBPJPYBet opposite106459.4%6.4%-94.0%-1.4094.0%

Are the confidence scores honest?

When this persona says “70%”, how often is it actually right? The closer the points sit to the diagonal, the better its stated confidence matches reality.

Left to right: the confidence number. Up: how often it was actually right. Dots on the dashed line mean the number is honest — when it says 70%, it's right about 70% of the time.

Calibration score (Brier) 0.285 vs 0.246 baseline — lower is better.

Last 30 outcomes