Technical Analyst

Technical Analysis Expert

openai/gpt-4o-mini

Contrarian · bet opposite

3d430d1599b95927…

First seen 10/27/2025. Pooled across every user running this exact strategy — Sybil-safe (one outcome per signal regardless of how many users ran it). Mechanical-exit P&L below assumes TP/SL exit with 0.05% fees per side; it is decision-support metadata, not a P&L promise.

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Sample

5519 resolved calls

Fade hit rate

59.3%

Edge vs 50%

+9.3%

z-score

13.77

Statistically significant edge (99%)

Resolved

5519

Inverse hit-rate

59.3%

fade this signal

Edge vs coin flip

8.0%

95% conservative

Reliability

66.1%

1 − Brier

Mechanical return

-413.1%

4641 trades · TP/SL exit · 0.05% fees

Sharpe / trade

-0.13

not annualised

Max drawdown

449.6%

peak-to-trough

Per-market track record

Market	Polarity	Resolved	Hit rate	Edge	Mech. return	Sharpe	Max DD
XAUUSD	Bet opposite	3098	60.4%	8.6%	-236.3%	-0.12	265.8%
GBPJPY	Bet opposite	1576	60.9%	8.5%	-140.0%	-1.13	140.0%
BTCUSD	Random	372	48.4%	0.0%	-17.0%	-0.07	25.5%
ETHUSD	Random	366	47.5%	0.0%	-31.1%	-0.11	42.9%
SOLUSD	Random	59	59.3%	0.0%	+13.3%	0.15	7.3%
EURUSD	Bet opposite	48	68.8%	4.7%	-1.9%	-0.21	3.3%

Are the confidence scores honest?

When this persona says “70%”, how often is it actually right? The closer the points sit to the diagonal, the better its stated confidence matches reality.

Left to right: the confidence number. Up: how often it was actually right. Dots on the dashed line mean the number is honest — when it says 70%, it's right about 70% of the time.

Calibration score (Brier) 0.339 vs 0.241 baseline — lower is better.

Per-market track record

Are the confidence scores honest?

Last 30 outcomes