Technical Analyst

Technical Analysis Expert

openai/gpt-4o-mini

Contrarian · bet opposite

3d430d1599b95927…

First seen 10/27/2025. Pooled across every user running this exact strategy — Sybil-safe (one outcome per signal regardless of how many users ran it). Mechanical-exit P&L below assumes TP/SL exit with 0.05% fees per side; it is decision-support metadata, not a P&L promise.

Share proof:Post on X Telegram

Sample

4269 resolved calls

Fade hit rate

58.4%

Edge vs 50%

+8.4%

z-score

10.97

Statistically significant edge (99%)

Resolved

4269

Inverse hit-rate

58.4%

fade this signal

Edge vs coin flip

6.9%

95% conservative

Reliability

66.3%

1 − Brier

Mechanical return

-291.7%

3612 trades · TP/SL exit · 0.05% fees

Sharpe / trade

-0.11

not annualised

Max drawdown

328.1%

peak-to-trough

Per-market track record

Market	Polarity	Resolved	Hit rate	Edge	Mech. return	Sharpe	Max DD
XAUUSD	Bet opposite	2346	59.3%	7.3%	-165.2%	-0.09	194.6%
GBPJPY	Bet opposite	1229	60.5%	7.7%	-106.4%	-1.14	106.4%
BTCUSD	Random	295	50.8%	0.0%	-8.4%	-0.04	20.0%
ETHUSD	Random	292	46.6%	0.0%	-23.1%	-0.09	38.7%
SOLUSD	Random	59	59.3%	0.0%	+13.3%	0.15	7.3%
EURUSD	Bet opposite	48	68.8%	4.7%	-1.9%	-0.21	3.3%

Are the confidence scores honest?

When this persona says “70%”, how often is it actually right? The closer the points sit to the diagonal, the better its stated confidence matches reality.

Left to right: the confidence number. Up: how often it was actually right. Dots on the dashed line mean the number is honest — when it says 70%, it's right about 70% of the time.

Calibration score (Brier) 0.337 vs 0.243 baseline — lower is better.

Per-market track record

Are the confidence scores honest?

Last 30 outcomes