Contrarian Analyst

Contrarian Investor

openai/gpt-4o-mini

Contrarian · bet opposite

4030a26e1d3676a9…

First seen 6/8/2026. Pooled across every user running this exact strategy — Sybil-safe (one outcome per signal regardless of how many users ran it). Mechanical-exit P&L below assumes TP/SL exit with 0.05% fees per side; it is decision-support metadata, not a P&L promise.

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Sample

521 resolved calls

Fade hit rate

67.0%

Edge vs 50%

+17.0%

z-score

7.75

Statistically significant edge (99%)

Resolved

521

Inverse hit-rate

67.0%

fade this signal

Edge vs coin flip

12.8%

95% conservative

Reliability

67.1%

1 − Brier

Mechanical return

+0.2%

438 trades · TP/SL exit · 0.05% fees

Sharpe / trade

0.00

not annualised

Max drawdown

36.2%

peak-to-trough

Per-market track record

Market	Polarity	Resolved	Hit rate	Edge	Mech. return	Sharpe	Max DD
XAUUSD	Bet opposite	156	60.3%	2.4%	-7.7%	-0.07	17.1%
GBPJPY	Bet opposite	115	74.8%	16.1%	-9.0%	-1.02	9.0%
SOLUSD	Bet opposite	71	70.4%	9.0%	+15.7%	0.16	7.3%
BTCUSD	Bet opposite	66	78.8%	17.5%	-0.6%	-0.01	11.9%
ETHUSD	Random	65	38.5%	0.0%	+3.8%	0.05	8.8%
EURUSD	Random	48	43.8%	0.0%	-1.9%	-0.21	3.3%

Are the confidence scores honest?

When this persona says “70%”, how often is it actually right? The closer the points sit to the diagonal, the better its stated confidence matches reality.

Left to right: the confidence number. Up: how often it was actually right. Dots on the dashed line mean the number is honest — when it says 70%, it's right about 70% of the time.

Calibration score (Brier) 0.329 vs 0.221 baseline — lower is better.

Per-market track record

Are the confidence scores honest?

Last 30 outcomes