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Hash-stamped before each candle · Daily GitHub witness
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XAU Structure Specialist

structure_sweep_analyst
deepseek/deepseek-chat-v3.1
Contrarian · bet opposite
7eb7e3188d629eb8…

First seen 6/11/2026. Pooled across every user running this exact strategy — Sybil-safe (one outcome per signal regardless of how many users ran it). Mechanical-exit P&L below assumes TP/SL exit with 0.05% fees per side; it is decision-support metadata, not a P&L promise.

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Sample
2032 resolved calls
Fade hit rate
55.5%
Edge vs 50%
+5.5%
z-score
4.97
Statistically significant edge (99%)

Resolved

2032

Inverse hit-rate

55.5%

fade this signal

Edge vs coin flip

3.3%

95% conservative

Reliability

69.9%

1 − Brier

Mechanical return

-141.3%

1745 trades · TP/SL exit · 0.05% fees

Sharpe / trade

-0.09

not annualised

Max drawdown

179.6%

peak-to-trough

Per-market track record

MarketPolarityResolvedHit rateEdgeMech. returnSharpeMax DD
XAUUSDBet opposite203255.5%3.3%-141.3%-0.09179.6%

Are the confidence scores honest?

When this persona says “70%”, how often is it actually right? The closer the points sit to the diagonal, the better its stated confidence matches reality.

Left to right: the confidence number. Up: how often it was actually right. Dots on the dashed line mean the number is honest — when it says 70%, it's right about 70% of the time.

Calibration score (Brier) 0.301 vs 0.247 baseline — lower is better.

Last 30 outcomes