Pattern Specialist

Chart Pattern Expert

openai/gpt-4o-mini

Contrarian · bet opposite

872bce45284b8961…

First seen 6/8/2026. Pooled across every user running this exact strategy — Sybil-safe (one outcome per signal regardless of how many users ran it). Mechanical-exit P&L below assumes TP/SL exit with 0.05% fees per side; it is decision-support metadata, not a P&L promise.

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Sample

529 resolved calls

Fade hit rate

54.4%

Edge vs 50%

+4.4%

z-score

2.04

Statistically significant edge (95%)

Resolved

529

Inverse hit-rate

54.4%

fade this signal

Edge vs coin flip

0.2%

95% conservative

Reliability

73.1%

1 − Brier

Mechanical return

-1.5%

446 trades · TP/SL exit · 0.05% fees

Sharpe / trade

-0.00

not annualised

Max drawdown

37.9%

peak-to-trough

Per-market track record

Market	Polarity	Resolved	Hit rate	Edge	Mech. return	Sharpe	Max DD
XAUUSD	Random	162	45.1%	0.0%	-8.2%	-0.08	19.0%
GBPJPY	Bet opposite	116	59.5%	0.4%	-9.2%	-1.03	9.2%
SOLUSD	Random	71	57.7%	0.0%	+15.7%	0.16	7.3%
BTCUSD	Random	66	57.6%	0.0%	-0.6%	-0.01	11.9%
ETHUSD	Random	66	48.5%	0.0%	+2.7%	0.04	9.3%
EURUSD	Bet opposite	48	79.2%	15.7%	-1.9%	-0.21	3.3%

Are the confidence scores honest?

When this persona says “70%”, how often is it actually right? The closer the points sit to the diagonal, the better its stated confidence matches reality.

Left to right: the confidence number. Up: how often it was actually right. Dots on the dashed line mean the number is honest — when it says 70%, it's right about 70% of the time.

Calibration score (Brier) 0.269 vs 0.248 baseline — lower is better.

Per-market track record

Are the confidence scores honest?

Last 30 outcomes