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Contrarian Analyst

Contrarian Investor
deepseek/deepseek-chat-v3.1
Contrarian · bet opposite
99059ad50ead68ac…

First seen 6/11/2026. Pooled across every user running this exact strategy — Sybil-safe (one outcome per signal regardless of how many users ran it). Mechanical-exit P&L below assumes TP/SL exit with 0.05% fees per side; it is decision-support metadata, not a P&L promise.

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Sample
298 resolved calls
Fade hit rate
78.5%
Edge vs 50%
+28.5%
z-score
9.85
Statistically significant edge (99%)

Resolved

298

Inverse hit-rate

78.5%

fade this signal

Edge vs coin flip

23.5%

95% conservative

Reliability

76.5%

1 − Brier

Mechanical return

-41.7%

230 trades · TP/SL exit · 0.05% fees

Sharpe / trade

-0.16

not annualised

Max drawdown

48.7%

peak-to-trough

Per-market track record

MarketPolarityResolvedHit rateEdgeMech. returnSharpeMax DD
SOLUSDBet opposite29878.5%23.5%-41.7%-0.1648.7%

Are the confidence scores honest?

When this persona says “70%”, how often is it actually right? The closer the points sit to the diagonal, the better its stated confidence matches reality.

Left to right: the confidence number. Up: how often it was actually right. Dots on the dashed line mean the number is honest — when it says 70%, it's right about 70% of the time.

Calibration score (Brier) 0.235 vs 0.169 baseline — lower is better.

Last 30 outcomes