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xau-structure-sweep

structure_sweep_analyst
deepseek/deepseek-chat-v3.1
9ffa058d3cb8258f…

First seen 6/12/2026. Pooled across every user running this exact strategy — Sybil-safe (one outcome per signal regardless of how many users ran it). Mechanical-exit P&L below assumes TP/SL exit with 0.05% fees per side; it is decision-support metadata, not a P&L promise.

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Sample
149 resolved calls
Hit rate
49.7%
Edge vs 50%
-0.3%
z-score
-0.08
Not statistically distinguishable from coin flip yet

Resolved

149

Hit rate

49.7%

Edge vs coin flip

0.0%

95% conservative

Reliability

73.9%

1 − Brier

Mechanical return

-5.8%

88 trades · TP/SL exit · 0.05% fees

Sharpe / trade

-0.17

not annualised

Max drawdown

8.5%

peak-to-trough

Per-market track record

MarketPolarityResolvedHit rateEdgeMech. returnSharpeMax DD
XAUUSDRandom14949.7%0.0%-5.8%-0.178.5%

Are the confidence scores honest?

When this persona says “70%”, how often is it actually right? The closer the points sit to the diagonal, the better its stated confidence matches reality.

Left to right: the confidence number. Up: how often it was actually right. Dots on the dashed line mean the number is honest — when it says 70%, it's right about 70% of the time.

Calibration score (Brier) 0.261 vs 0.250 baseline — lower is better.

Last 30 outcomes