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xau-macro-flow

macro_flow_analyst
deepseek/deepseek-chat-v3.1
a4eeee5f5b807720…

First seen 6/12/2026. Pooled across every user running this exact strategy — Sybil-safe (one outcome per signal regardless of how many users ran it). Mechanical-exit P&L below assumes TP/SL exit with 0.05% fees per side; it is decision-support metadata, not a P&L promise.

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Sample
149 resolved calls
Hit rate
53.7%
Edge vs 50%
+3.7%
z-score
0.90
Not statistically distinguishable from coin flip yet

Resolved

149

Hit rate

53.7%

Edge vs coin flip

0.0%

95% conservative

Reliability

74.6%

1 − Brier

Mechanical return

-5.6%

89 trades · TP/SL exit · 0.05% fees

Sharpe / trade

-0.16

not annualised

Max drawdown

8.4%

peak-to-trough

Per-market track record

MarketPolarityResolvedHit rateEdgeMech. returnSharpeMax DD
XAUUSDRandom14953.7%0.0%-5.6%-0.168.4%

Are the confidence scores honest?

When this persona says “70%”, how often is it actually right? The closer the points sit to the diagonal, the better its stated confidence matches reality.

Left to right: the confidence number. Up: how often it was actually right. Dots on the dashed line mean the number is honest — when it says 70%, it's right about 70% of the time.

Calibration score (Brier) 0.254 vs 0.249 baseline — lower is better.

Last 30 outcomes