Precious Metals Specialist

deepseek/deepseek-chat-v3.1

Contrarian · bet opposite

a9d80f18b64ad5d6…

First seen 6/9/2026. Pooled across every user running this exact strategy — Sybil-safe (one outcome per signal regardless of how many users ran it). Mechanical-exit P&L below assumes TP/SL exit with 0.05% fees per side; it is decision-support metadata, not a P&L promise.

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Sample

2483 resolved calls

Fade hit rate

60.2%

Edge vs 50%

+10.2%

z-score

10.17

Statistically significant edge (99%)

Resolved

2483

Inverse hit-rate

60.2%

fade this signal

Edge vs coin flip

8.3%

95% conservative

Reliability

69.4%

1 − Brier

Mechanical return

-177.8%

2128 trades · TP/SL exit · 0.05% fees

Sharpe / trade

-0.10

not annualised

Max drawdown

213.9%

peak-to-trough

Per-market track record

Market	Polarity	Resolved	Hit rate	Edge	Mech. return	Sharpe	Max DD
XAUUSD	Bet opposite	2483	60.2%	8.3%	-177.8%	-0.10	213.9%

Are the confidence scores honest?

When this persona says “70%”, how often is it actually right? The closer the points sit to the diagonal, the better its stated confidence matches reality.

Left to right: the confidence number. Up: how often it was actually right. Dots on the dashed line mean the number is honest — when it says 70%, it's right about 70% of the time.

Calibration score (Brier) 0.306 vs 0.240 baseline — lower is better.

Per-market track record

Are the confidence scores honest?

Last 30 outcomes