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Precious Metals Specialist

Precious Metals Specialist
deepseek/deepseek-chat-v3.1
Contrarian · bet opposite
a9d80f18b64ad5d6…

First seen 6/9/2026. Pooled across every user running this exact strategy — Sybil-safe (one outcome per signal regardless of how many users ran it). Mechanical-exit P&L below assumes TP/SL exit with 0.05% fees per side; it is decision-support metadata, not a P&L promise.

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Sample
2997 resolved calls
Fade hit rate
60.4%
Edge vs 50%
+10.4%
z-score
11.42
Statistically significant edge (99%)

Resolved

2997

Inverse hit-rate

60.4%

fade this signal

Edge vs coin flip

8.7%

95% conservative

Reliability

69.3%

1 − Brier

Mechanical return

-227.6%

2560 trades · TP/SL exit · 0.05% fees

Sharpe / trade

-0.12

not annualised

Max drawdown

263.6%

peak-to-trough

Per-market track record

MarketPolarityResolvedHit rateEdgeMech. returnSharpeMax DD
XAUUSDBet opposite299760.4%8.7%-227.6%-0.12263.6%

Are the confidence scores honest?

When this persona says “70%”, how often is it actually right? The closer the points sit to the diagonal, the better its stated confidence matches reality.

Left to right: the confidence number. Up: how often it was actually right. Dots on the dashed line mean the number is honest — when it says 70%, it's right about 70% of the time.

Calibration score (Brier) 0.307 vs 0.239 baseline — lower is better.

Last 30 outcomes