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Multi-Day Swing Trader

Multi-Day Swing Trader
openai/gpt-4o-mini
Contrarian · bet opposite
bb96579bdbaa6176…

First seen 6/8/2026. Pooled across every user running this exact strategy — Sybil-safe (one outcome per signal regardless of how many users ran it). Mechanical-exit P&L below assumes TP/SL exit with 0.05% fees per side; it is decision-support metadata, not a P&L promise.

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Sample
820 resolved calls
Fade hit rate
60.9%
Edge vs 50%
+10.9%
z-score
6.22
Statistically significant edge (99%)

Resolved

820

Inverse hit-rate

60.9%

fade this signal

Edge vs coin flip

7.5%

95% conservative

Reliability

71.8%

1 − Brier

Mechanical return

-43.2%

669 trades · TP/SL exit · 0.05% fees

Sharpe / trade

-0.06

not annualised

Max drawdown

77.3%

peak-to-trough

Per-market track record

MarketPolarityResolvedHit rateEdgeMech. returnSharpeMax DD
SOLUSDBet opposite36958.8%3.7%-26.0%-0.0748.7%
XAUUSDBet opposite15760.5%2.7%-8.3%-0.0817.8%
GBPJPYBet opposite11477.2%18.7%-9.0%-1.029.0%
BTCUSDRandom6651.5%0.0%-0.6%-0.0111.9%
ETHUSDRandom6647.0%0.0%+2.7%0.049.3%
EURUSDBet opposite4866.7%2.5%-1.9%-0.213.3%

Are the confidence scores honest?

When this persona says “70%”, how often is it actually right? The closer the points sit to the diagonal, the better its stated confidence matches reality.

Left to right: the confidence number. Up: how often it was actually right. Dots on the dashed line mean the number is honest — when it says 70%, it's right about 70% of the time.

Calibration score (Brier) 0.282 vs 0.238 baseline — lower is better.

Last 30 outcomes