Risk Manager

Conservative Risk Manager

deepseek/deepseek-chat-v3.1

Contrarian · bet opposite

cd1ba3db5fcc1632…

First seen 10/27/2025. Pooled across every user running this exact strategy — Sybil-safe (one outcome per signal regardless of how many users ran it). Mechanical-exit P&L below assumes TP/SL exit with 0.05% fees per side; it is decision-support metadata, not a P&L promise.

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Sample

5087 resolved calls

Fade hit rate

67.8%

Edge vs 50%

+17.8%

z-score

25.34

Statistically significant edge (99%)

Resolved

5087

Inverse hit-rate

67.8%

fade this signal

Edge vs coin flip

16.5%

95% conservative

Reliability

64.7%

1 − Brier

Mechanical return

-406.8%

4275 trades · TP/SL exit · 0.05% fees

Sharpe / trade

-0.14

not annualised

Max drawdown

443.6%

peak-to-trough

Per-market track record

Market	Polarity	Resolved	Hit rate	Edge	Mech. return	Sharpe	Max DD
XAUUSD	Bet opposite	2981	67.8%	16.1%	-224.3%	-0.11	261.0%
GBPJPY	Bet opposite	1489	70.4%	18.0%	-133.6%	-1.15	133.6%
BTCUSD	Bet opposite	309	60.8%	5.3%	-13.7%	-0.08	17.1%
ETHUSD	Bet opposite	308	62.0%	6.5%	-35.2%	-0.16	37.9%

Are the confidence scores honest?

When this persona says “70%”, how often is it actually right? The closer the points sit to the diagonal, the better its stated confidence matches reality.

Left to right: the confidence number. Up: how often it was actually right. Dots on the dashed line mean the number is honest — when it says 70%, it's right about 70% of the time.

Calibration score (Brier) 0.353 vs 0.218 baseline — lower is better.

Per-market track record

Are the confidence scores honest?

Last 30 outcomes