Risk Manager

Conservative Risk Manager

deepseek/deepseek-chat-v3.1

Contrarian · bet opposite

cd1ba3db5fcc1632…

First seen 10/27/2025. Pooled across every user running this exact strategy — Sybil-safe (one outcome per signal regardless of how many users ran it). Mechanical-exit P&L below assumes TP/SL exit with 0.05% fees per side; it is decision-support metadata, not a P&L promise.

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Sample

3847 resolved calls

Fade hit rate

67.1%

Edge vs 50%

+17.1%

z-score

21.17

Statistically significant edge (99%)

Resolved

3847

Inverse hit-rate

67.1%

fade this signal

Edge vs coin flip

15.6%

95% conservative

Reliability

65.2%

1 − Brier

Mechanical return

-287.1%

3255 trades · TP/SL exit · 0.05% fees

Sharpe / trade

-0.12

not annualised

Max drawdown

324.0%

peak-to-trough

Per-market track record

Market	Polarity	Resolved	Hit rate	Edge	Mech. return	Sharpe	Max DD
XAUUSD	Bet opposite	2234	67.6%	15.6%	-153.7%	-0.09	190.5%
GBPJPY	Bet opposite	1145	69.3%	16.5%	-100.5%	-1.17	100.5%
BTCUSD	Bet opposite	234	57.3%	0.9%	-5.8%	-0.04	12.3%
ETHUSD	Bet opposite	234	61.1%	4.7%	-27.1%	-0.15	33.7%

Are the confidence scores honest?

When this persona says “70%”, how often is it actually right? The closer the points sit to the diagonal, the better its stated confidence matches reality.

Left to right: the confidence number. Up: how often it was actually right. Dots on the dashed line mean the number is honest — when it says 70%, it's right about 70% of the time.

Calibration score (Brier) 0.348 vs 0.221 baseline — lower is better.

Per-market track record

Are the confidence scores honest?

Last 30 outcomes