gj-volatility-regime

volatility_regime_analyst

deepseek/deepseek-chat-v3.1

Contrarian · bet opposite

d82001d01cc72e31…

First seen 6/13/2026. Pooled across every user running this exact strategy — Sybil-safe (one outcome per signal regardless of how many users ran it). Mechanical-exit P&L below assumes TP/SL exit with 0.05% fees per side; it is decision-support metadata, not a P&L promise.

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Sample

140 resolved calls

Fade hit rate

63.6%

Edge vs 50%

+13.6%

z-score

3.21

Statistically significant edge (99%)

Resolved

140

Inverse hit-rate

63.6%

fade this signal

Edge vs coin flip

5.3%

95% conservative

Reliability

66.9%

1 − Brier

Mechanical return

-10.4%

99 trades · TP/SL exit · 0.05% fees

Sharpe / trade

-0.64

not annualised

Max drawdown

10.9%

peak-to-trough

Per-market track record

Market	Polarity	Resolved	Hit rate	Edge	Mech. return	Sharpe	Max DD
GBPJPY	Bet opposite	140	63.6%	5.3%	-10.4%	-0.64	10.9%

Are the confidence scores honest?

When this persona says “70%”, how often is it actually right? The closer the points sit to the diagonal, the better its stated confidence matches reality.

Left to right: the confidence number. Up: how often it was actually right. Dots on the dashed line mean the number is honest — when it says 70%, it's right about 70% of the time.

Calibration score (Brier) 0.331 vs 0.232 baseline — lower is better.

Per-market track record

Are the confidence scores honest?

Last 30 outcomes